Efficiency trade-offs in the Brazilian passenger vehicle fleet
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2021-06-28
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MOSQUIM, R. F.
Carlos Mady
Carlos Mady
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ECOS 2021 - 34th International Conference on Efficency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems
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MOSQUIM, R. F.; MADY, C. Efficiency trade-offs in the Brazilian passenger vehicle fleet. ECOS 2021 - 34th International Conference on Efficency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems, p. 1902-1912, jun. 2021.
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© ECOS 2021 - 34th International Conference on Efficency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems.Transportation energy demand in Brazil increases despite vehicles improving technologically. Models calculating possible avoided emissions can benefit from the estimation between vehicle attribute trade-offs and technological progress. A regression analysis with year-fixed effects was carried for 1,656 models in the passenger vehicle fleet in Brazil from 2004 to 2020. Weight and aerodynamic drag had the main effect on fuel economy. Parameters related to power, such as displacement, horsepower, torque and acceleration, impacted as well. Hybrids had positive effects, but its diffusion in Brazil is likely to be slow. Fuel economy could have been 20.9% to 23.4% higher in the period if all technological progress were expended on better fuel economy, as opposed to the 12.1% actually realized. This gap is an important aspect that should not be neglected in scenario-building.