Práticas de previsão de demanda nas indústrias alimentícias brasileiras
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Tipo de produção
Dissertação
Data
2009
Autores
Cecatto, Cristiano
Orientador
Belfiore, Patrícia do Prado
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Citação
CECATTO, Cristiano. Práticas de previsão de demanda nas indústrias alimentícias brasileiras. 2009. 107 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Engenharia Mecânica) - Centro Universitário da FEI, São Bernardo do Campo, 2009
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Palavras-chave
Análise multivariada,Demanda (Teoria econômica),Alimentos-Indústria,Pesquisa quantitativa
Resumo
O presente trabalho busca conhecer as práticas de previsão de demanda que vem sendo utilizadas pelas indústrias de alimentos pesquisadas. Esse segmento industrial foi escolhido pela sua relevância na economia brasileira, sendo as empresas selecionadas a partir de sua filiação a ABIA - Associação Brasileira das Indústrias da Alimentação, entidade de classes representativa do setor no país e que congrega empresas de grande, médio e pequeno porte, de todas as regiões brasileiras. Com base na revisão da literatura sobre práticas de previsão de demanda, um questionário foi desenvolvido e enviado a uma amostra de 450 empresas do setor de alimentos encontradas na ABIA que representa 70% do universo total, e um índice de resposta de 14,4% (65/450) foi alcançado. O objetivo da pesquisa é detectar quais e como os métodos de previsão vem sendo utilziados por estas empresas, quais os principais fatores que influenciam na escolha do modelo e quais as principais dificuldades encontradas no uso de métodos de previsão dedemanda. Os dados foram anaisados por meio de técnicas estatísticas multivariadas, como análise de correspondência e análise discriminante, utilizando o software estatístico SPSS. Os resultados mostram que as indústrias de laimentos pesquisadas fazem uso de métodos de previsão de demanda, sendo o modelo de análise histórica o mais utilizado. Os fatores que influenciam a escolha dos modelos de previsão recaem no tipo de produto e no tempo despendido durante o processo de elaboração de previsões, e as maiores dificuldades levantadas na utilização dos modelos de previsão estão na disponibilidade de softwares e dificuldade no entendimento, aparecendo como grandes barreiras.
This study aims to know the forecasting practices that have been used by food industries in Brazil. The food industrial sector was chosen for its relevance in the Brazilian economy, and the companies which are members of ABIA (Brazilian Association of Food Industries) were selected. ABIA is an organization which represents the sector in the country and it is composed by large, medium and small companies, in all Brazilian regions. Based on literature review on forecasting practices, a questionnaire was developed and sent to a sample of 450 companies in the sector from ABIA which represents 70% of the universe, and a response rate of 14.4% (64/450) was achieved. The objective of this research is to detect which and how the forecasting methods have been used by these companies, what are the main factors influencing the choice of method and what are the main difficulites in the use of forecasting methods. Data were analyzed by multivariate statisitical techniques as correspondence analysis and discriminant analysis using the statistical software SPSS. The results show that the Brazilian food industries use forecasting methods, and the model of historical analysis is the most used. The factors tha t influence the choice of the models are type product and the time spent during the preparation of forecasts, and the most difficulties to the use of methods are the availability of software and difficulty in understanding
This study aims to know the forecasting practices that have been used by food industries in Brazil. The food industrial sector was chosen for its relevance in the Brazilian economy, and the companies which are members of ABIA (Brazilian Association of Food Industries) were selected. ABIA is an organization which represents the sector in the country and it is composed by large, medium and small companies, in all Brazilian regions. Based on literature review on forecasting practices, a questionnaire was developed and sent to a sample of 450 companies in the sector from ABIA which represents 70% of the universe, and a response rate of 14.4% (64/450) was achieved. The objective of this research is to detect which and how the forecasting methods have been used by these companies, what are the main factors influencing the choice of method and what are the main difficulites in the use of forecasting methods. Data were analyzed by multivariate statisitical techniques as correspondence analysis and discriminant analysis using the statistical software SPSS. The results show that the Brazilian food industries use forecasting methods, and the model of historical analysis is the most used. The factors tha t influence the choice of the models are type product and the time spent during the preparation of forecasts, and the most difficulties to the use of methods are the availability of software and difficulty in understanding