Análise de riscos em projetos complexos associados ao prazo
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Tipo de produção
Dissertação
Data
2023
Autores
Assis, J. R. C. M. de
Orientador
Mattos, Cláudia Aparecida de
Periódico
Título da Revista
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Título de Volume
Citação
ASSIS, J. R. C. M. de. Análise de riscos em projetos complexos associados ao prazo. 2023. 58 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Administração de Empresas) - Centro Universitário FEI, São Paulo, 2023. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.31414/ADM.2023.D.131628.
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Palavras-chave
Administração de risco
Resumo
A indústria da construção é uma das mais dinâmicas, arriscada e desafiadora. Com isso, o setor apresenta muitos problemas de gerenciamento alinhado a uma exigência cada vez maior em relação ao desempenho tanto nos aspectos de qualidade e custos, quanto nos
aspectos associados aos riscos do empreendimento não terminar no prazo contratado. Neste cenário, as organizações precisam ser mais competitivas para sobreviverem às condições impostas pelas partes interessadas e, neste contexto, a análise dos riscos que impactam no
prazo do projeto tem-se tornado um fator crítico de sucesso. No entanto, a maioria dos modelos de gestão de riscos avaliam os riscos como eventos independentes, desconsiderando as inter-relações existentes entre as atividades críticas e os riscos. A fim de vencer esta
limitação o objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar os riscos com foco no cronograma em um projeto complexo do setor de mineração contemplando informações aleatórias de diferentes situações relacionadas às atividades e não somente a duração da atividade, assim com a
interação entre as variáveis. E, por meio de simulação de Monte Carlo na análise dos riscos foi possível identificar e definir planos de mitigação com os resultados alcançados. O gerenciamento adequado dos riscos durante a implementação de um projeto complexo torna
possível identificar, quantificar e abordar eventos de riscos potenciais antes que eles ocorram. Assim surge a análise do risco, a qual se torna uma aplicação de técnicas tanto qualitativas quanto quantitativas. Em relação à análise quantitativa, a simulação de Monte Carlo foi a
utilizada nete trabalho. E, por meio da simulação de Monte Carlo na análise de risco no cronograma, seja possível destacar atividades que impactam diretamente no prazo final deste projeto e possibilitando a equipe a execução de ações mitigatórias. A simulação foi realizada
com a correlação entre as variáveis e sem a correlação entre as váriaveis, considerando 1000 iterações no software cristal ball. Como resultado, em uma análise sem correlação entre as atividades foi identificado que existe a probabilidade de 41,81% das atividades do caminho crítico estarem entre a duração planejada e a média, e com correlação esta probabilidade é de 25,33%. Isto é, com a análise e seus resultados auxilia um gestor de projeto a desenvolver estratégias de mitigação, bem como a monitoramento dos riscos identificados, melhorando o processo de tomada de decisão e, consequentemente, aumentando a taxa de sucesso do projeto
The construction industry is one of the most dynamic, risky, and challenging. With this, the sector presents many management problems aligned with an increasing demand in relation to performance both in the aspects of quality and costs, as well as aspects associated with the risks of the project not finishing within the contracted deadline. In this scenario, organizations need to be more competitive to survive the conditions imposed by stakeholders and, in this context, the analysis of risks that impact the project deadline has become a critical success factor. However, most risk management models evaluate risks as independent events, disregarding the existing interrelationships between critical activities and risks. In order to overcome this limitation, the objective of this work was to analyze the risks focused on the schedule in a complex mining project contemplating random information from different situations related to the activities and not only the duration of the activity, as well as the interaction among the variables. And, by means of Monte Carlo simulation in the risk analysis it was possible to identify and define mitigation plans with the results achieved. Proper risk management during the implementation of a complex project makes it possible to identify, quantify, and address potential risk events before they occur. Thus comes risk analysis, which becomes an application of both qualitative and quantitative techniques. Regarding quantitative analysis, Monte Carlo simulation was used in this work. And, by means of Monte Carlo simulation in the schedule risk analysis, it is possible to highlight activities that directly impact the project's deadline and enabling the team to perform mitigating actions. The simulation was performed with and without correlation between the variables, considering 1000 iterations in the crystal ball software. As a result, in an analysis without correlation between the activities it was identified that there is a probability of 41.81% of the critical path activities being between the planned and average duration, and with correlation this probability is 25.33%. That is, with the analysis and its results it helps a project manager to develop mitigation strategies, as well as to monitor the identified risks, improving the decision making process and, consequently, increasing the project's success rate
The construction industry is one of the most dynamic, risky, and challenging. With this, the sector presents many management problems aligned with an increasing demand in relation to performance both in the aspects of quality and costs, as well as aspects associated with the risks of the project not finishing within the contracted deadline. In this scenario, organizations need to be more competitive to survive the conditions imposed by stakeholders and, in this context, the analysis of risks that impact the project deadline has become a critical success factor. However, most risk management models evaluate risks as independent events, disregarding the existing interrelationships between critical activities and risks. In order to overcome this limitation, the objective of this work was to analyze the risks focused on the schedule in a complex mining project contemplating random information from different situations related to the activities and not only the duration of the activity, as well as the interaction among the variables. And, by means of Monte Carlo simulation in the risk analysis it was possible to identify and define mitigation plans with the results achieved. Proper risk management during the implementation of a complex project makes it possible to identify, quantify, and address potential risk events before they occur. Thus comes risk analysis, which becomes an application of both qualitative and quantitative techniques. Regarding quantitative analysis, Monte Carlo simulation was used in this work. And, by means of Monte Carlo simulation in the schedule risk analysis, it is possible to highlight activities that directly impact the project's deadline and enabling the team to perform mitigating actions. The simulation was performed with and without correlation between the variables, considering 1000 iterations in the crystal ball software. As a result, in an analysis without correlation between the activities it was identified that there is a probability of 41.81% of the critical path activities being between the planned and average duration, and with correlation this probability is 25.33%. That is, with the analysis and its results it helps a project manager to develop mitigation strategies, as well as to monitor the identified risks, improving the decision making process and, consequently, increasing the project's success rate